The Chip Witch Blog

12.07.2025 at 21:39:56 UTC

Type	Jul 12	Jul 13	Jul 14
Active	35%	30%	30%
Minor	20%	35%	20%
Moderate	5%	20%	5%
Strong	1%	5%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	3.33	2.67	1.67
03-06UT	3.67	3.67	2.67
06-09UT	2.67	4.67	3.00
09-12UT	2.67	1.67	2.67
12-15UT	2.33	2.67	2.00
15-18UT	2.00	2.00	1.67
18-21UT	2.00	1.67	2.33
21-00UT	2.67	2.67	2.67
Solar Activity
Solar activity reached moderate (R1-Minor) levels following an M1.4 flare at 12/0402 UTC and an M2.3 flare at 12/0834 UTC, both originating from Region 4140 (S14E67, Dao/beta). This region was also responsible for the majority of the C-class activity this period, despite remaining mostly unchanged. Regions 4136 (N19E34, Dai/beta-gamma-delta), 4138 (N29W20, Dai/beta), and 4139 (N22E09, Cao/beta) all exhibited growth during the period, with Regions 4138 and 4139 contributing a couple of C-class flares.
Solar Wind
Solar wind parameters became elevated after ~11/0030 UTC in response to the onset of a CIR preceding positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field strength reached 14 nT, the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -9 nT, and solar wind speeds averaged near 460 km/s with occasional peaks over 500 km/s. Phi angle was positive throughout the period.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.