The Chip Witch Blog

31.07.2025 at 09:03:02 UTC

Type	Jul 31	Aug 1	Aug 2
Active	35%	20%	15%
Minor	25%	5%	1%
Moderate	1%	1%	1%
Strong	1%	1%	1%
Kp Index Prediction
00-03UT	4.00	2.33	1.67
03-06UT	3.67	2.67	1.67
06-09UT	3.00	2.33	1.33
09-12UT	2.33	2.00	1.33
12-15UT	2.00	2.00	1.33
15-18UT	2.33	1.67	1.33
18-21UT	2.67	2.00	1.33
21-00UT	2.67	2.33	1.67
Solar Activity
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4155 (S09W24, Cri/beta), which had shown signs of development in previous periods, underwent decay in its trailing spots, losing rudimentary penumbra while producing C-class flares to include a C4.7 at 30/0616 UTC. Region 4161 (S12E39, Eso/beta) produced a few C-class flares as it experienced decay in its trailing spots as well. Region 4165 (N12E72, Cao/beta) continued to rotate into view on the eastern limb revealing a trailing spot, and Region 4166 (N24W26, Bxo/beta) rapidly emerged and was numbered. A new, single spot was noted just south of AR 4161, but remains unnumbered at this time.
Solar Wind
The solar wind parameters reflected negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field increased to a max of 12-13 nT and the Bz component underwent a few brief southward deflections of -5 to -9 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to ~450 to ~500 km/s and phi component was predominantly negative.
Energetic Particle
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.